Market Comment - It's the end of a tumultuous year to say the least.  The media has had a heyday reporting world shaking news on an almost daily basis and it seems there have been far more downs" than ups".  It's safe to say now that it had to happen at some point.  For the most part the world has enjoyed a lengthy period of continuous growth with very little bad economic news along the way.  Real estate prices and stock market values have climbed much higher than a reasonable inflation rate would allow and, like most things that seem too good to be true, reality set in in 2008.

Our highly accurate 20/20 hindsight is now makes it easy for all the experts to see why it was all too good to be true.  Unfortunately there were some bad apples in the barrel that spoiled it for the rest of us and it will take a little while to clean up behind them and about the time we think we've hit t eh bottom of the barrel, another stinker appears.

In the meantime, the experts are still having a little trouble with their view of the future.  They still can't agree on a lot of pretty fundamental things.  Some predict an economic upturn in 2009 in the US while others think it will take well into 2010.  Some are predicting that the price of oil will fall as low as $25/barrel while others think it will be back up to $80 in 2009 and well over $100 in 2010.  Some think that Canada will weather the storm almost untouched and some think we will fare as bad as the rest.  It's hard to know who to believe and as long as people are unsure, things will likely be a little slower.

A recent survey of Canadians suggests that many of us have been listening to the positive side.  58% were optimistic about the next year with only 21% pessimistic while 20% hadn't even thought about it.  That in itself is great news because consumer confidence is a huge part of the equation.  When people are optimistic they are more likely to do all the things necessary for the economy to prosper - work, spend, invest, create.  A country where the majority feel optimistic will undoubtedly fare better in every way.

In central Alberta we seem to be very optimistic as well with both Red Deer County and the City of Red Deer focused on heavy infrastructure spending.  Several major projects underway or about to start will dump hundreds of millions of dollars into our local economy.  Local officials are making a wise decision to invest in services and facilities at a time when costs should be stable and manpower a little more available.   Being ready for the next boom is likely a much bigger challenge than surviving the downturn.

The key to success in 2009 is to focus on the fundamentals, to be thankful for the incredible abundance we enjoy relative to most of the rest of the world and to continue to do the things we did to get us where we are.  Work hard, play hard, build a better world around us and help make central Alberta a place where everyone wants to be.

The future is bright!  Happy New Year!